Desisting from Crime: In-Prison Behaviour and Cognition as Predictors of Post-Release Success
Publication: Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice
Volume 62, Number 3
Abstract
Abstract
To test the possibility that in-prison behaviour and cognition provide information useful in predicting future desistance from crime, two in-prison variables and nine pre-prison and demographic control variables were correlated with post-prison release success in a group of 1,101 male inmates released from federal prison. A Cox regression proportional hazards survival analysis revealed that fewer disciplinary infractions and lower criminal thinking predicted future desistance, as measured by the absence of post-release arrests or a longer time until first arrest for those who were arrested, net the effects of the pre-prison variables and demographic measures. When disciplinary infractions were subclassified as aggressive (fighting, assault, threatening) or non-aggressive (disobedience, theft, use of intoxicants), only the non-aggressive category achieved significance. Likewise, when criminal thinking was subdivided into proactive and reactive criminal thinking, only the reactive dimension achieved significance. These findings suggest that behaviour and cognition assessed in prison may have value both in predicting desistance upon a person’s release from prison and in clarifying the nature of post-prison release success.
Résumé
Pour tester la possibilité que les connaissances et le comportement en prison offrent de l’information utile pour prévoir le désistement futur du crime, deux variables en prison et neuf variables de contrôle pré-prison et démographiques ont été corrélées avec une libération réussie post-prison dans un groupe de 1 101 prisonniers masculins libérés d’un pénitencier. Un modèle d’analyse de survie avec le modèle de régression à risques proportionnels de Cox a montré que moins d’infractions disciplinaires et moins de pensée criminelle permettaient de prédire le désistement futur, comme mesuré par l’absence d’arrestations post-libération ou une plus longue période avec la première arrestation pour ceux qui ont été arrêtés, en tenant compte des effets des variables avant la prison et des mesures démographiques. Lorsque des infractions disciplinaires étaient sous-divisées comme étant agressives (bagarre, agression, menaces) ou non agressives (désobéissance, vol, utilisation de substances intoxicantes), seule la catégorie non agressive avait une importance. De même, lorsque la pensée criminelle était sous-divisée en pensée proactive et réactive, seule la dimension réactive avait de l’importance. Ces résultats suggèrent que le comportement et les connaissances évalués en prison peuvent avoir de la valeur tant dans la prédiction du désistement après libération que dans la clarification de la nature du succès post-libération.
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Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice
Volume 62 • Number 3 • July 2020
Pages: 11 - 28
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© 2020 CJCCJ / RCCJP.
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Published in print: July 2020
Published ahead of print: 21 September 2020
Published online: 27 November 2020
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